Were I to pop down to the local bookmaker and put £50 on the Conservatives to win the election I would be given odds which would lead to my winning £1 if the Conservatives end up with a majority in the House of Commons. Interest rates are very low at present, but I reckon I could ensure a better return by putting my £50 in an interest bearing bank account.
On the other hand, were I to put that £50 on Labour winning, I would earn £800 when the Labour landslide is announced on 9th June. Better still, £50 on the Lib Dems winning would give me £5,000 were that to happen. And the same bet on Ukip or the Greens would, if successful, reward me with £25,000.
I assume that no sane person is considering betting on a Tory victory (because a better return can be guaranteed by making a bank deposit). But, maybe, a few people will be tempted by the odds on a Labour victory, especially if they are devout Marxists who have convinced themselves that the working classes will come round to Corbyn in a month’s time. But who is going to back Ukip or the Greens? Are there really people out there who are prepared to give up valuable beer money to bet on the Greens having an overall majority on 9th June?
Of course, there will be more interesting odds offered on the size of the Tory majority, but those of us who are not experienced gamblers, yet might have placed a simple bet on which party will win, are just not going to bother.
I wonder whether this election will give us a new record: the lowest amount of money to be bet on the outcome?