Spare a Thought for the Tory Candidates who will Win Labour Constituencies

Of course, we all know that opinion polls have to be taken with a pinch of salt. And, anyway, the campaign hasn’t even started yet. Things can change very quickly during general election campaigns.

Nevertheless, it must be likely that the Tories will have a landslide victory in June. Bear inĀ  mind that, generally speaking, the polls have been unreliable in the recent past because they have underestimated Conservative support. The conventional theory is that the pollsters have failed to take account of the reluctance of some people to admit that they intend to do anything so anti-social as to vote for Tories.

In the last couple of days there have been some truly remarkable polls.

As Nicola Sturgeon accepts, the battle in Scotland would now appear to be a two horse race between the SNP and the Conservatives. Indeed, the latest Scottish poll suggests that Labour’s one seat in Scotland will be lost, while the Tories will go up from one to twelve seats.

Even more remarkable is the latest Welsh poll. It puts the Conservatives on 40% and Labour on 30%. If the poll is right, the Tories will have more seats in Wales than all the other parties put together. That has not happened since the middle of the nineteenth century (and the Tories last had more seats than Labour in Wales in 1922).

Then there was the Guardian’s poll of Labour marginal constituencies. Sixty five of them are predicted to change from Labour to Conservative. That poll certainly does need the pinch of salt because the sample was extremely low. But other nationwide polls tend to suggest that Labour is going to do very badly throughout the country.

It is possible that the Liberal Democrats will make some gains, but, slightly surprisingly to someone who mixes with the professional classes in London (who remain incensed by the EU referendum result and endlessly declare their intention of voting for Mr Farron’s crew), the polls do not suggest a dramatic resurgence in Liberal Democrat voting.

In short, putting all the recent polls together, the current prediction is that the Conservatives’ overall majority could increase from 17 to about 150.

That is obviously good news for Mrs May, but is it good news for all those Tory candidates in seats currently held by Labour who will find themselves members of the House of Commons on 9th June?

Suddenly becoming an MP produces a great upheaval in a person’s life. The problem is not great if the new MP is in a safe seat. But, if he or she has won a marginal constituency, there is the all too real prospect of being turfed out in five years’ time. It is true that some of the Conservative victors will benefit from boundary changes which will be made after the election (the current boundaries give Labour something like a 6% advantage over other parties). But many of them must be likely to be in the House for only five years.

I am assuming that Labour will opt for a more electable leader after the election, or that a new centre left party will emerge if Momentum insists on choosing another Corbyn. If either of those things happens, bearing in mind the undoubted fact that governments always become unpopular in time, quite a few of those new Tory MPs will find themselves back on the labour market (for real jobs) in 2022.

Re-entering the real world after five years in Parliament is hardly ever easy. I think we should applaud those Tory candidates who are prepared to put their lives on hold for the next five years.

Charles

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3 thoughts on “Spare a Thought for the Tory Candidates who will Win Labour Constituencies

  1. It has occurred to me that without its fiefdoms in Scotland and Wales, the Labour party was always going to struggle to be the alternative party of government.
    It struck me as particularly lucky for Labour that at the 2015 election the Conservatives used their decapitation strategy against the Lib-dems which meant that whilst Labour was down, the Lib-dems suffered an even more serious defeat. This may have camouflaged the true plight of Labour.
    I must admit that I can imagine a situation where the Lib-dems become the main opposition party in England, with the opposition to the conservatives at the UK level coming from a coalition, perhaps led by the Lib-dems as largest party, including SNP and others with Labour perhaps being the third party.
    I don’t think it’s inevitable, but I think we’ve reached a point at which it becomes possible or at least conceivable.

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    • I wouldn’t wish to ‘over-praise’ the Tories but, candidly, they are the only viable party of government at the present time. They will probably pick up many of the UKIP voters, as well as those who now realise what a bunch of idiots the Labour and Lib/Dem parties have become – the SNP is a joke.

      Having said that, the Tory party needs to ‘buck up’ more than just a little. Philip Hammond was a poor Foreign Secretary and an even worse Chancellor. I simply do not like or trust the man. Furthermore, I am very concerned that Mrs May actually chose him for the role. Even after the mega cock-up at the last Budget, he’s still there, smirking behind her left shoulder.

      Also, there are some tiresome PC oriented ministers, who use Politically Correct language to a worrying extent. What these silly people must realise, is that every parent who pays for private education, has already paid for state education – that is effectively an additional tax. Similarly, the careful and prudent working/middle class old people, who end up in private care homes, have already paid for the state equivalent – yet another closet tax.

      I’m tired of hearing certain expressions, which are utterly meaningless, like – ‘the needy hard-working families versus the greedy rich’ and ‘the many, not the few’. All left-wing claptrap to ensnare the unsuspecting ordinary voter. Does not the Labour leader ask himself, why have all these poor, oppressed citizens consistently voted Tory? It’s because intelligent people know that the left-wing diatribes are false at best, descending to corrupt.

      Finally, in all the debates and reports in the media, about the woes of the NHS and the education system, the word ‘immigration’ is never mentioned. It’s starkly obvious, that the massively disproportionate increase in the population in the past ten years has affected both systems – and others. Let’s have some honesty.

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